SSV Ulm 1846 edged Havelse 2-1 at the Donaustadion in a 3. Liga contest that was ultimately decided by a late winner. The Lemeister model had favoured the home side with a 45 per cent win probability, and the underlying numbers support that outcome. Ulm generated 55 per cent possession and created the more dangerous openings, finishing with a clear advantage in expected goals of 2.03 to 0.97. They also had 15 total shots to Havelse’s 11 and tested the goalkeeper four times from inside the box, where they registered 11 attempts. Havelse managed only six shots inside the box, underlining that most of their work came from less threatening areas.
The first goal arrived in the 63rd minute. D. Chessa found the net for SSV Ulm 1846, with N. Kolle providing the assist. It was a normal goal and came during a period when the home side were beginning to assert their territorial dominance. Ulm’s build-up play was steady, completing 333 of 420 passes at a 79 per cent success rate, and their pressure told against a Havelse defence that had blocked no shots across the entire match. The hosts had already accumulated four shots on target by that stage, and the volume of their attacking work was beginning to yield results.
Havelse equalised in the 80th minute. C. Schepp scored a normal goal, assisted by J. Berger, who finished as the highest-rated player on the pitch with a 7.5 Lemeister rating. The goal came against the run of play in terms of expected goals but was not undeserved given Havelse’s own attacking output: they took 11 shots themselves, three on target, and forced the Ulm goalkeeper into two saves. Their goalkeeper also made two saves, but the overall balance of play tilted toward the hosts. Havelse’s equaliser showed their efficiency, as they converted one of their few clear openings.
The decisive moment arrived in the 90th minute. L. Mazagg scored directly for SSV Ulm 1846 without an assist, a normal goal that secured all three points. Mazagg was among the highest-rated players on the pitch with a Lemeister rating of 7.3, alongside team-mates Dennis Dressel and Jonathan Meier. Dressel and Meier both earned 7.3 for their contributions in midfield and defence, while for Havelse, Semi Belkahia and Christopher Schepp also received 7.3 ratings. The late winner was the culmination of Ulm’s greater territorial advantage and their persistence in attacking areas, despite Havelse’s resilient defending.
The match was largely clean, with only three yellow cards issued. Mirnes Pepic and Niko Vukančić were booked for Ulm in the 57th and 74th minutes respectively, while Nassim Boujellab of Havelse received a yellow in the 89th minute. Both sides used their substitutes, with Ulm making two changes and Havelse four. The cards reflected a competitive but not overly physical contest, with Ulm committing 15 fouls to Havelse’s 10.
This result keeps SSV Ulm 1846 in contention in the mid-table of the 3. Liga regular season, with 34 rounds played. The win moves them to a points total that strengthens their position as the season reaches its final phase. For Havelse, the narrow defeat leaves them still searching for consistency on the road, where their expected goals differential remains a concern. Ulm’s ability to generate more chances and maintain possession proved decisive, even as Havelse showed they could compete on the scoreboard for long stretches.
