Alemannia Aachen delivered a decisive 3-1 victory at the Donaustadion, a result that the data shows was secured by superior finishing despite being outpossessed. The visitors struck three times within the opening 75 minutes, their efficiency in front of goal proving the critical difference against a home side that controlled the ball but struggled to turn possession into clear-cut chances. The scoreline matched precisely the projection of the Lemeister model, which had given Aachen a 54 per cent pre-match probability and forecast a 3-1 away win.
The breakthrough arrived in the 22nd minute when Lars Gindorf scored, with Gianluca Gaudino providing the assist. Gaudino turned provider again in the 58th minute, setting up Mehdi Loune to double the lead, and completed a hat-trick of assists in the 75th minute when Faton Ademi added the third. Ulm’s only reply came in the 83rd minute, when E. Loder scored with an assist from Max Brandt, but it proved no more than a consolation. All three Aachen goals were ordinary strikes, with no penalties or own goals recorded.
The statistics paint a clear picture of how the match was balanced yet decided. Ulm held 60 per cent possession and completed 338 of 425 passes at an 80 per cent accuracy rate, while Aachen managed 200 of 273 at 73 per cent, reflecting their more direct approach. However, the visitors generated 15 total shots to Ulm’s 10, and while both sides registered three shots on target, the difference came in the goalkeeper saves column: Aachen’s goalkeeper made two stops, while Ulm’s made none. The expected goals data shows a narrow advantage for Ulm at 1.55 against 1.28 for Aachen, indicating that the home side created slightly better chances collectively but failed to convert, while Aachen outperformed their xG by a significant margin.
Discipline was a minor factor, with six yellow cards in total. Ulm’s Max Brandt was booked in the 31st minute, followed by Leon Dajaku and Jonathan Meier, with Lucas Röser also cautioned late on. For Aachen, Lukas Scepanik and Gianluca Gaudino received yellow cards, the latter in the 78th minute. There were no red cards and both sides used five substitutes.
In the individual ratings, Faton Ademi and Lars Gindorf led the way with 7.9, reflecting their direct involvement in the goals. Gindorf scored the opener, while Ademi added the third. Mehdi Loune earned 7.5 for his goal, and Gianluca Gaudino, Petros Bagalianis and Ulm’s Max Brandt each registered 7.3. Gaudino’s three assists were the standout individual contribution, underpinning Aachen’s attacking efficiency.
The result moves Aachen to 41 points from 24 matches in the 3. Liga, strengthening their position in the upper half of the table. For Ulm, the defeat leaves them on 24 points, and the underlying numbers are concerning: despite superior possession and passing accuracy, they generated only 1.55 expected goals, failed to force a single save from the Aachen goalkeeper, and conceded three goals from 1.28 xG against. That gap between process and outcome suggests their survival challenge will require sharper execution in the final third and better organisation at the back.
