Vilavelhense v Vitória ES: the model read
Vilavelhense meet Vitória ES in the Copa Espírito Santo quarter-finals at Estádio Engenheiro Alencar Araripe, Cariacica, Espírito Santo. The model makes Vitória ES the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 31% VIL, 33% draw, 36% VIT.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 55%. Attacking output favors Vitória ES on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Vitória ES at 54%; double chance reads Vilavelhense or draw 64%, Vitória ES or draw 69%.
Vilavelhense arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Vitória ES, D 2-2 v Vitória ES, W 2-0 v Audax São Mateus, W 1-0 v Vitória ES.
Vitória ES are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rio Branco-VN, L 0-2 @ Ipatinga, D 0-0 v Vilavelhense, W 1-0 v Ipatinga.
Vitória ES hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vitória ES 0-0 Vilavelhense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
