VfB Stuttgart defeated 1. FC Köln 3-1 at the MHPArena, a result that aligned closely with the Lemeister model's pre-match read of a narrow home victory. The model gave Stuttgart a 50 per cent win probability and projected a 3-1 scoreline, which proved accurate. The decisive factor was clinical finishing in the final six minutes after Köln had equalised, combined with Stuttgart's control of possession and expected goals. The home side generated 2.25 expected goals overall, almost a full goal more than Köln's 1.58, and this superiority was built on cleaner passing and a more efficient attacking structure.
Ermedin Demirović opened the scoring in the 15th minute, converting a chance created by J. Leweling. Stuttgart's early goal rewarded a period of dominance; they ended the first half with 57 per cent possession and had already registered four of their 13 total shots. The home side's 475 total passes, of which 403 were accurate at 85 per cent, contrasted sharply with Köln's 337 passes at 77 per cent accuracy. This passing control allowed Stuttgart to dictate the tempo, though they only managed two corner kicks to Köln's five, indicating that the visitors were not completely suppressed defensively.
Köln grew into the match after the interval. They had nine of their 10 shots from inside the box, indicating they created quality chances despite having less of the ball. Their expected goals total of 1.58, only 0.67 behind Stuttgart, reflected a deliberate approach of working the ball into dangerous areas rather than attempting speculative efforts just one shot came from outside the box. Ragnar Ache levelled in the 79th minute, assisted by L. Waldschmidt, and the visitors briefly appeared capable of taking something from the game. However, Stuttgart's response was emphatic. Demirović restored the lead in the 84th minute from a R. Hendriks assist, and Deniz Undav sealed the victory in the 90th minute from an Angelo Stiller pass.
Demirović was the match's outstanding performer, earning a rating of 9.2 for his two-goal contribution. His brace came from Stuttgart's four shots on target, underlining his efficiency in front of goal. Undav also impressed with an 8.2 rating, rounding off the scoring late on. Maximilian Mittelstädt (7.9) and Stiller (7.5) were influential in midfield and defence, with Stiller's assist a key contribution. Jeff Chabot received a 7.3 rating and a yellow card in the 53rd minute. For Köln, Ache's equaliser earned him a 7.5 rating, but the loss of discipline was costly; Jakub Kamiński was booked in stoppage time. Stuttgart's four yellow cards to Köln's one suggested a more aggressive approach, but it did not disrupt their structure.
The final statistics underline Stuttgart's control. They recorded four shots on goal to Köln's three, had more blocked shots (four to two) and committed the same number of fouls (10 each), showing discipline in not conceding unnecessary set pieces. The home side's goalkeeper made two saves to Köln's one, while both goalkeepers recorded zero goals prevented, meaning the shots they faced were not of exceptional difficulty. Stuttgart's eight shots from inside the box, compared to Köln's nine, showed both sides were effective at creating central opportunities, but Stuttgart finished three of their four on-target attempts while Köln managed only one conversion from three.
The victory lifts Stuttgart to 33 points after 22 matches, strengthening their position in the upper half of the Bundesliga table. Köln remain in the relegation fight with 18 points, having now lost 12 matches this season. Stuttgart's ability to respond quickly after conceding, combined with Demirović's finishing, proved the difference in a contest where the Lemeister model's projection was matched to the exact scoreline. For the visitors, the quality of their chances suggests they are competitive in phases but lack the sustained control and ruthlessness needed to turn draws into wins in the relegation battle.
