Paysandu v Bahia: the model read
Paysandu meet Bahia in the Copa Do Brasil 3rd round at Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença, Belém, Pará. The model makes Paysandu the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% PAY, 28% draw, 30% BAH.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Paysandu, 63% against 48%. Attacking output favors Paysandu on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 72%. Draw no bet leans Paysandu at 58%; double chance reads Paysandu or draw 70%, Bahia or draw 59%.
Paysandu arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Guarani Campinas, L 0-1 @ Ypiranga-RS, L 1-3 v Santa Cruz, W 1-0 @ Maranhão.
Bahia are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Atletico-MG, W 2-0 v Chapecoense-sc, L 0-2 @ Fluminense, W 4-1 v Atletico Torque.
Bahia hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Bahia 4-0 Paysandu.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
