Desportiva ES v Vilavelhense: the model read
Desportiva ES meet Vilavelhense in the Copa Espírito Santo 1st phase - 11 at Estádio Engenheiro Alencar Araripe, Cariacica, Espírito Santo. The model makes Vilavelhense the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 30% DES, 34% draw, 36% VIL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Vilavelhense, 55% against 43%. Attacking output favors Vilavelhense on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 21%. Draw no bet leans Vilavelhense at 55%; double chance reads Desportiva ES or draw 64%, Vilavelhense or draw 70%.
Desportiva ES arrive steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Sport Recife, D 1-1 @ Vilavelhense, D 1-1 v Vilavelhense, D 1-1 @ Sampaio Corrêa RJ.
Vilavelhense are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Vitória ES, D 2-2 v Vitória ES, W 2-0 v Audax São Mateus, W 1-0 v Vitória ES.
Desportiva ES hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vilavelhense 1-1 Desportiva ES.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output