Maua defeated Uniao Mogi 3-2 at the Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira, a result decided by the visitors’ superior finishing in a match that swung decisively in the second half. The Lemeister model had identified Maua as the slight favourite with a 41 per cent win probability and projected a 2-1 away victory, a forecast that correctly anticipated the direction of the result, though the final scoreline was one goal higher for each side.
The opening goal arrived in the 30th minute when R. Pablo put Maua ahead, establishing the narrow lead that would define the first half. Uniao Mogi responded in the 35th minute through Joao Victor, equalising and taking the teams into the interval level at 1-1. The pattern of swift replies did not continue after the break, as Maua seized control through their principal attacking threat.
D. Rodrigues became the decisive figure of the second half with two goals in a 17-minute spell. He scored Maua’s second in the 62nd minute to restore the visitors’ advantage, then added a third in the 79th minute, a brace that appeared to have put the game beyond reach. Uniao Mogi reduced the deficit when Rafa scored in the 82nd minute, closing the gap to one goal with eight minutes remaining, but they could not find an equaliser.
While the available data does not include possession, shots or expected goals for this fixture, the goal distribution itself tells a clear story. Maua scored three times from what were evidently efficient attacking sequences, with two of them arriving in a concentrated second-half spell that broke Uniao Mogi’s resistance. The home side’s two goals, coming in the 35th and 82nd minutes, bookended periods of Maua dominance but were not sufficient to turn the tide. The lack of cards in the data suggests a disciplined contest on both sides, though the absence of foul or territorial statistics means no inference can be drawn about which team controlled the run of play.
D. Rodrigues, with his two goals, was the standout performer, providing the margin of victory from open play. R. Pablo had earlier set Maua on their way, contributing the first goal in a 30th-minute breakthrough that gave the visitors an early platform. Joao Victor and Rafa ensured Uniao Mogi were always competitive on the scoresheet, with Joao Victor’s equaliser coming just five minutes after the opener and Rafa’s goal in the 82nd minute ensuring a tense finish. The distribution of goals across four different scorers highlighted the variety in Maua’s attacking threat and Uniao Mogi’s resilience, but the visitors’ ability to score twice in quick succession in the second half proved the critical difference.
For Uniao Mogi, the result is a missed opportunity to collect points on home turf in the 1st Phase of the Paulista Série B, leaving them with work to do as the group stage progresses. For Maua, taking three points away from home against the modest pre-match expectation of a one-goal win strengthens their position in the standings, with the Lemeister model’s projection proving close to reality. The decisive factor was the individual quality of D. Rodrigues in the second half, whose brace turned a tight contest into a victory that ultimately survived Uniao Mogi’s late response.
