Amazonas came from behind to beat Criciuma 2-1 at the Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith, a result that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had given the visitors a 43 per cent win probability. The home side’s ability to generate more threatening chances despite having less of the ball proved decisive. Amazonas attempted 16 total shots to Criciuma’s 13, and their five on target represented a superior conversion rate, while the visitors managed only three attempts on goal. The discrepancy in expected goals, though not explicitly listed, is reflected in the final scoreline: Amazonas needed two second-half strikes to overturn an early deficit.
Criciuma opened the scoring just before half-time. In the 45th minute, Jean Carlos found the net with a normal goal, assisted by Felipinho. It was a moment that gave the visitors a foothold in the contest at a crucial juncture, and Jean Carlos later posted a match rating of 7.3, one of the highest on either side. However, the advantage did not last long after the restart. Amazonas equalised in the 58th minute when K. Ramirez scored a normal goal from an assist by D. Torres. The goal shifted the momentum, and the home side began to assert more authority in the final third, finishing with nine shots inside the box to Criciuma’s nine, but with a greater share of those efforts forcing the goalkeeper into action.
The winning goal arrived four minutes from time. Henrique Almeida, who had been booked early in the first half, converted a normal goal in the 86th minute, with the assist credited to Rafael Tavares. Almeida finished with a match rating of 7.2, among the top performers for the home side. The goal was the culmination of sustained pressure as Amazonas, despite having only 43 per cent possession and completing just 160 of 261 passes at a 61 per cent accuracy rate, demonstrated greater efficiency in the decisive moments.
The underlying statistics paint a picture of a contest where Criciuma dominated the ball but struggled to translate that into clear-cut opportunities. The visitors completed 344 passes with a 75 per cent accuracy rate and held 57 per cent possession, yet their shot count of 13, with only three on target, suggests a lack of penetration. Their total of six yellow cards, compared to Amazonas’s three, also indicates a certain frustration as the game progressed. Criciuma committed 19 fouls overall, five more than the home side, and received a booking for Felipinho, Luciano Castan, Guilherme Lobo, Lucas Dias Costa, Thales and Léo Mana.
The individual ratings highlight a handful of key contributors. For Amazonas, Fabiano, Erick Varão and Kevin Ramírez each earned 7.3, while Diego Torres posted 7.2. For Criciuma, only Jean Carlos matched that top mark of 7.3, indicating that the visitors lacked depth in their performance across the pitch. The home side’s defensive organisation, despite conceding 57 per cent possession, was sufficient to limit Criciuma’s quality of chances, with the goalkeeper making just two saves.
For Amazonas, this victory provides a valuable three points in the Serie B regular season, moving them further away from the relegation zone and giving them momentum. Criciuma, who had been favoured by the Lemeister model, will be left to reflect on a missed opportunity to strengthen their position in the mid-table. The result underscores the importance of clinical finishing in a league where possession does not always determine the outcome.
