Chapecoense-sc beat Novorizontino 1-0 at Arena Condá in the Serie B regular season round 30, a result that the Lemeister model had seen as less likely, giving the home side a 27 per cent chance and favouring Novorizontino with 43 per cent. The decisive moment came in the 60th minute, when Pedro Perotti scored from an assist by Victor Caetano, a normal goal that proved to be the only one of the match. The final scoreline was built on a sharp contrast in finishing efficiency: Chapecoense had seven shots on goal from 15 total attempts, while Novorizontino had 16 total shots but managed only one on target.
The visitors dominated much of the territorial play. They held 52 per cent possession and completed 323 of 392 passes, an 82 per cent accuracy rate that matched Chapecoense's 303 from 371. Novorizontino also took 11 shots from inside the box, compared to six for the home side, and earned four corners to Chapecoense's two. However, that territorial advantage did not translate into high-quality chances. Novorizontino had 11 shots off goal, a sign of wayward finishing, and their expected goals total of 0.95 was well below what typical volume inside the box would suggest. Chapecoense's expected goals of 1.47 reflected a much more efficient use of their opportunities, a gap that tells the story of the match.
Chapecoense's defensive discipline was a major factor. Despite conceding 11 inside-box shots, they limited Novorizontino to a single shot on target, which the goalkeeper saved, while Chapecoense's own goalkeeper was forced into only one save all evening. The home side committed 18 fouls and collected five yellow cards, including bookings for Jorge Roa Jiménez in the 19th minute, João Paulo in the 45th, Bruno Leonardo in the 49th, Victor Caetano in the 84th, and Rafael Santos in the 90th. Novorizontino had two yellow cards, for Patrick in the 42nd minute and Rafael Donato in the 49th, and committed 11 fouls. Both teams used all five of their permitted substitutions.
The highest-rated performers came from Chapecoense, with Rafael Carvalheira and Giovanni Augusto each earning 7.7. Walter Clar followed closely with 7.6. These ratings underscore the home side's collective effectiveness, particularly in midfield and attack, where the players who created and finished the decisive goal were well supported. For Novorizontino, Airton was the standout at 7.6, while Rodrigo Soares received 7.3. Airton's influence in central areas was notable, but he lacked the same support from his teammates in the final third, where the visitors' shooting accuracy let them down.
The contest was defined by the disparity between volume and precision. Novorizontino generated 11 inside-box shots, more than any other metric suggests, but their 0.95 expected goals indicate that many of those attempts were from low-probability positions or were poorly struck. Chapecoense, by contrast, created fewer inside-box opportunities but converted a higher proportion into meaningful attempts, with six of their six inside-box shots being on target. The home side's seven shots on goal from 15 total attempts gave them a conversion rate that Novorizontino could not match, and the six saves forced from the visitors' goalkeeper highlighted the pressure Chapecoense applied when they did break through.
The result gives Chapecoense three points that are valuable in the context of the Serie B table. With the season entering its final quarter, every home win tightens the relegation battle or eases pressure near the bottom, depending on the team's position. For Novorizontino, the defeat is a missed opportunity to consolidate a place in the promotion race. They controlled the ball and created volume but lacked the cutting edge to score. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 away win, but the home side defied that projection with superior finishing and defensive organisation, a combination that proved decisive on the night.
