Quilmes v Nueva Chicago: the model read
Quilmes meet Nueva Chicago in the Primera Nacional promotion play-offs - 2nd round at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 34% QUI, 37% draw, 30% NUE.
The baseline ratings are close, 1480 to 1468, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 47%. Attacking output favors Quilmes on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 20%, over 2.5 goals around 12%. Draw no bet leans Quilmes at 53%; double chance reads Quilmes or draw 70%, Nueva Chicago or draw 66%.
Quilmes arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Midland, W 2-1 v Atlanta, L 1-3 @ Colegiales, W 1-0 v Gimnasia Y Tiro.
Nueva Chicago are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Agropecuario, L 0-1 @ Tristan Suarez, W 2-0 v Club Atlético Güemes, D 0-0 v Atletico DE Rafaela.
Nueva Chicago hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Quilmes 0-0 Nueva Chicago.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
