North Texas v Tacoma Defiance: the model read
North Texas meet Tacoma Defiance in the MLS Next Pro conference - semi-finals at Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, Texas.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors Tacoma Defiance on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans Tacoma Defiance at 55%; double chance reads North Texas or draw 61%, Tacoma Defiance or draw 68%.
North Texas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Minnesota United II, D 0-0 v Austin II, L 0-3 v Portland Timbers II, W 3-1 v Tacoma Defiance.
Tacoma Defiance are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 14 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Sporting KC II, L 3-4 @ Los Angeles FC II, L 1-3 @ North Texas, W 4-2 v Vancouver Whitecaps II.
North Texas hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: North Texas 3-1 Tacoma Defiance.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
