Guarda v Beira-Mar: the model read
Guarda meet Beira-Mar in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B group b - 24 at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda. The model makes Beira-Mar the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 30% GUA, 34% draw, 36% BEI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors Beira-Mar on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 21%. Draw no bet leans Beira-Mar at 54%; double chance reads Guarda or draw 64%, Beira-Mar or draw 70%.
Guarda arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Régua, L 2-6 @ Leça, L 0-1 v Beira-Mar, L 0-1 @ Machico.
Beira-Mar are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Tondela, W 2-1 @ Gouveia, W 4-0 v União Lamas, W 1-0 @ Alpendorada.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guarda 0-1 Beira-Mar.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
