Guarda v AD Marco 09: the model read
Guarda meet AD Marco 09 in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B group b - 15 at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda. The model makes Guarda the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% GUA, 34% draw, 30% AD .
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 45%. Attacking output favors Guarda on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 20%. Draw no bet leans Guarda at 55%; double chance reads Guarda or draw 70%, AD Marco 09 or draw 64%.
Guarda arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Régua, L 2-6 @ Leça, L 0-1 v Beira-Mar, L 0-1 @ Machico.
AD Marco 09 are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ União de Leiria, D 2-2 @ Paredes, W 1-0 v SC Braga B, W 1-0 v Fafe.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guarda 1-0 AD Marco 09.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
