Vanuatu v New Caledonia: the model read
Vanuatu meet New Caledonia in the OFC Nations Cup group stage - 2 at Fresh Wata Field, Port Vila. The model makes New Caledonia the most likely outcome at 60%, with the full read 17% VAN, 23% draw, 60% NEW.
New Caledonia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1666 to 1458. Recent form leans New Caledonia, 71% against 42%. Attacking output favors New Caledonia on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 85%. Draw no bet leans New Caledonia at 78%; double chance reads Vanuatu or draw 40%, New Caledonia or draw 83%.
Vanuatu arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Fiji, W 2-1 v Fiji, D 1-1 @ Papua New Guinea, W 2-1 v Solomon Islands.
New Caledonia are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Jamaica, W 2-0 @ Gibraltar, L 0-3 v New Zealand, W 3-0 v Tahiti.
New Caledonia hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: New Caledonia 1-0 Vanuatu.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
