Alaior v Mercadal: the model read
Alaior meet Mercadal in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 group 11 - 26 at Estadio Los Pinos, Menorca. The model makes Mercadal the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 32% ALA, 33% draw, 35% MER.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mercadal, 45% against 28%. Attacking output favors Mercadal on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Mercadal at 52%; double chance reads Alaior or draw 65%, Mercadal or draw 68%.
Alaior arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Portmany, L 1-2 @ Mallorca II, L 0-3 v Poblense, L 0-1 @ Constància.
Mercadal are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Alcúdia, L 0-7 @ Mallorca II, L 1-6 @ Llosetense, W 1-0 v Platges Calvià.
Their last 2 meetings are tight — 2 drawn. Most recently they met in 2024: Alaior 0-0 Mercadal.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
