Águia de Marabá defeated Castanhal 2-1 in the Paraense quarter-finals at Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, a result that aligned with the Lemeister model's pre-match assessment. The model had given the visitors a 43 per cent win probability, making them clear favourites, while Castanhal entered with a 28 per cent chance. The final scoreline confirmed that advantage, though the match was tighter than the margin suggests, with the decisive moments arriving in the second half after a closely contested first period.
The opening goal came in the 43rd minute, when Luam scored for Águia de Marabá. This strike just before half-time was a significant blow to Castanhal, who had likely been competitive up to that point. Conceding so late in the half shifted momentum firmly in the visitors' favour, leaving Castanhal with a deficit to overcome after the break. The timing of the goal made it particularly damaging, as it denied the home side the chance to regroup during the interval on level terms.
Águia de Marabá doubled their lead in the 84th minute through Danilo, a goal that effectively put the tie beyond reach. With no statistical breakdown available from the data, the pattern of the match can be inferred from the goal timings and the absence of cards or substitutions. The visitors' second goal came when Castanhal were likely pushing forward in search of an equaliser, leaving them vulnerable to a counter-attack. Danilo's strike gave Águia a two-goal cushion that proved insurmountable, despite Castanhal's late response.
Castanhal did pull one back in the 91st minute, when Breno scored deep into stoppage time. This consolation goal came too late to alter the outcome, reducing the deficit but not the result. The lack of any cards in the data suggests a match that was competitive but not ill-tempered, with neither side resorting to aggressive tactics. Similarly, the absence of substitutions indicates both managers largely trusted their starting selections to see out the contest, with no tactical reshuffles made from the bench.
Without detailed possession, shot or expected goals statistics, the match narrative rests heavily on the goal chronology. Águia de Marabá's ability to score once in each half, with the second arriving late when Castanhal were committing numbers forward, points to a disciplined defensive performance. The home side's failure to find the net until injury time suggests they struggled to create clear chances against a well-organised backline. The visitors' efficiency in front of goal, converting two of what were likely limited opportunities, proved to be the decisive factor.
The Lemeister model's projection had anticipated a tight contest, with the draw probability at 30 per cent, but Águia's slight edge in win likelihood proved accurate. For Castanhal, the defeat ends their Paraense campaign at the quarter-final stage, a disappointing outcome given the late rally. Águia de Marabá now advance to the semi-finals, gaining momentum as the competition enters its decisive phase. The win, built on timely goals and defensive solidity, positions them as a contender in the latter stages of the state championship.
