Spain v Austria

Spain meet Austria in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 44% ESP, 29% draw, 27% AUT.

Spain rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2080 to 1860. Recent form leans Spain, 80% against 68%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Spain 1-0 Austria, from expected goals of 2.0 to 0.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 62%; double chance reads Spain or draw 73%, Austria or draw 56%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.