Portugal v Spain

Portugal meet Spain in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 31% POR, 30% draw, 39% ESP.

The baseline ratings are close, 2010 to 2080, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 74% against 80%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Portugal 2-1 Spain, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.7.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 56%; double chance reads Portugal or draw 61%, Spain or draw 69%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.