New Zealand v Belgium

New Zealand meet Belgium in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group g at BC Place, Vancouver. The model makes Belgium the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 25% NZL, 29% draw, 46% BEL.

Belgium rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1960 to 1690. Recent form leans Belgium, 66% against 54%. Attacking output favors Belgium on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.0 per match.

Model score projection: most likely New Zealand 0-2 Belgium, from expected goals of 0.8 to 2.1.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Belgium at 65%; double chance reads New Zealand or draw 54%, Belgium or draw 75%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.