Where the market is wrong on Jagiellonia v Polonia Warszawa
Jagiellonia meet Polonia Warszawa in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Jagiellonia, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Jagiellonia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Jagiellonia arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Polonia Warszawa, W 5-0 v Suduva Marijampole, L 1-3 v Legia Warszawa, L 1-2 @ Olympiakos Piraeus.
Polonia Warszawa are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Jagiellonia, W 2-0 v Chrobry Głogów, D 2-2 v Polonia Bytom, L 1-2 @ Stal Rzeszów.
The market prices JAG at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Polonia Warszawa: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
