Where the market is wrong on Defensores de Belgrano VR v Alvarado
Defensores de Belgrano VR meet Alvarado in the Torneo Federal A quarter-finals at Salomon Boeseldin, Ramallo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Alvarado, 65% against 55%. Attacking output favors Alvarado on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Defensores de Belgrano VR arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Alvarado, W 2-0 @ Sarmiento de La Banda, W 1-0 v San Martin Formosa, L 0-1 @ 9 de Julio Rafaela.
Alvarado are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Defensores de Belgrano VR, D 1-1 v Olimpo Bahia Blanca, L 0-1 @ Cipolletti, W 3-2 v Atenas.
The market prices DEF at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Alvarado: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
