Where the market is wrong on Papua New Guinea v Solomon Islands
Papua New Guinea meet Solomon Islands in the Friendlies friendly international at HFC Bank Stadium, Suva.
The baseline ratings are close, 1458 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Papua New Guinea, 44% against 25%. Attacking output favors Papua New Guinea on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Papua New Guinea arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Solomon Islands, L 0-2 @ Fiji, L 1-2 v New Caledonia, D 1-1 v Vanuatu.
Solomon Islands are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 10 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Papua New Guinea, D 3-3 v Vanuatu, W 2-0 @ New Caledonia, L 2-4 @ St. Kitts and Nevis.
The market prices PAP at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Papua New Guinea: a 8.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
