Where the market is wrong on Martinique v Honduras
Martinique meet Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League league a - 2 at Stade Pierre-Aliker, Fort-de-France.
Honduras rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1400. Recent form leans Honduras, 57% against 32%. Attacking output favors Honduras on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Martinique arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Suriname, L 1-3 @ El Salvador, L 0-1 v El Salvador, D 2-2 v Cuba.
Honduras are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Martinique, W 1-0 @ Jamaica, L 2-3 v Suriname, L 0-2 @ Argentina.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Martinique 2-1 Honduras.
The market prices MAR at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Martinique: a 7.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
