Where the market is wrong on Suriname v Guatemala
Suriname meet Guatemala in the CONCACAF Nations League league a - 2 at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion, Paramaribo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Suriname, 55% against 37%. Attacking output favors Suriname on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Suriname arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Guatemala, W 2-1 v Martinique, W 3-2 @ Honduras, L 1-2 @ Bolivia.
Guatemala are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Suriname, W 6-0 v El Salvador, L 2-3 @ Jamaica, L 0-3 @ Ecuador.
Guatemala hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guatemala 3-1 Suriname.
The market prices SUR at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
