Where the market is wrong on Turks and Caicos Islands v Montserrat
Turks and Caicos Islands meet Montserrat in the CONCACAF Nations League league c - 1.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 38%. Attacking output favors Turks and Caicos Islands on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.0 per match.
Turks and Caicos Islands arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Montserrat, D 1-1 @ US Virgin Islands, L 0-3 @ Belize, W 2-1 v Anguilla.
Montserrat are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v British Virgin Islands, W 2-0 @ Turks and Caicos Islands, L 0-3 @ Guyana, W 1-0 v Belize.
The market prices TUR at 6% implied. Our number sits apart on Turks and Caicos Islands: a 27.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
