Where the market is wrong on Fenix v Colón
Fenix meet Colón in the Segunda División 2nd phase - 19 at Parque Capurro, Montevideo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Fenix on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Fenix arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ CA River Plate, L 1-2 @ Rentistas, D 3-3 @ Colón, D 1-1 v Miramar.
Colón are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rentistas, L 0-2 @ Boston River, W 1-0 @ Miramar, D 3-3 v Fenix.
Colón hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Colón 3-3 Fenix.
The market prices FEN at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Colón: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
