Where the market is wrong on Derio v Salamanca UDS
Derio meet Salamanca UDS in the Copa Federacion round of 16.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 48%. Attacking output favors Salamanca UDS on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Derio arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 3-5 v Salamanca UDS, D 1-1 @ San Ignacio, D 1-1 @ Compostela, D 0-0 v Real Sociedad III.
Salamanca UDS are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 13 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 5-3 @ Derio, W 1-0 v Getafe II, W 3-2 v Caudal, W 3-2 @ Guadalajara.
Salamanca UDS hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derio 3-5 Salamanca UDS.
The market prices DER at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Derio: a 6.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
