Where the market is wrong on Bahia W v Corinthians W
Bahia W meet Corinthians W in the Brasileiro Women semi-finals at Estadio Alberto Oliveira, Feira de Santana.
Corinthians W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1722 to 1546. Recent form leans Corinthians W, 79% against 57%. Attacking output favors Corinthians W on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.6 per match.
Bahia W arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Corinthians W, D 1-1 @ Palmeiras W, D 1-1 v Palmeiras W, D 2-2 @ Juventude W.
Corinthians W are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Bahia W, W 3-1 v Cruzeiro W, W 1-0 @ Cruzeiro W, L 1-3 v Internacional RS W.
The market prices BAH at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Bahia W: a 8.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
