Where the market is wrong on Exmouth v Banbury United
Exmouth meet Banbury United in the FA Cup 1st round qualifying replays.
The baseline ratings are close, 1444 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 39% against 38%. Attacking output favors Exmouth on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Exmouth arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Banbury United, D 0-0 @ Banbury United, L 1-4 @ Hartpury University, D 4-4 @ Shaftesbury Town.
Banbury United are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Leiston, L 1-2 @ Exmouth, D 0-0 v Exmouth, L 0-3 @ Anstey Nomads.
Exmouth hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Exmouth 2-1 Banbury United.
The market prices EXM at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Exmouth: a 10.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
