Where the market is wrong on Samtredia v Rustavi
Samtredia meet Rustavi in the David Kipiani Cup quarter-finals at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium, Samtredia.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 65%. Attacking output favors Samtredia on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.3 per match.
Samtredia arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 15 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Rustavi, W 5-0 v Merani Martvili, L 0-1 @ Kolkheti Poti, W 6-1 v Gareji.
Rustavi are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Samtredia, L 0-2 v FC Iberia 1999, W 1-0 @ Meshakhte, D 1-1 @ Spaeri.
Rustavi hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Samtredia 1-2 Rustavi.
The market prices SAM at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Samtredia: a 9.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
