Where the market is wrong on Bærum v Lillestrom
Bærum meet Lillestrom in the NM Cupen round of 64.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Bærum on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.4 per match.
Bærum arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 v Lillestrom, L 0-2 @ Vålerenga II, L 1-2 v Union Carl Berner, L 2-5 @ Lokomotiv Oslo.
Lillestrom are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 @ Bærum, L 0-3 @ Viking, L 1-2 v Torreense, W 2-0 v Valerenga.
Lillestrom hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bærum 1-5 Lillestrom.
The market prices BÆR at 4% implied. Our number sits apart on Bærum: a 37.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
