Where the market is wrong on Peninsula Power v Moreton City Excelsior
Peninsula Power meet Moreton City Excelsior in the Queensland NPL semi-finals at AJ Kelly Park, Brisbane.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 63%. Attacking output favors Moreton City Excelsior on expected goals, 2.4 to 2.1 per match.
Peninsula Power arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Moreton City Excelsior, L 1-4 @ Lions, D 2-2 v Brisbane City, D 2-2 @ Gold Coast Knights.
Moreton City Excelsior are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Peninsula Power, W 2-0 v Gold Coast Knights, L 0-2 v Lions, W 2-1 @ Olympic.
The market prices PEN at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Moreton City Excelsior: a 5.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
