Where the market is wrong on Singapore U20 v Bhutan U20
Singapore U20 meet Bhutan U20 in the AFC U20 Asian Cup group stage - 1 at Changlimithang Stadium, Thimphu.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bhutan U20, 13% against 0%. Attacking output favors Bhutan U20 on expected goals, 0.5 to 0.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 9%, over 2.5 goals around 6%. Draw no bet leans Bhutan U20 at 55%; double chance reads Singapore U20 or draw 65%, Bhutan U20 or draw 72%.
Singapore U20 arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 1 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ India U20, L 0-3 @ India U20, L 1-2 v Jordan U20, L 0-2 v Jordan U20.
Bhutan U20 are out of sorts: 0W-1D-3L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 2 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Bangladesh U20, L 0-1 @ Syria U20, L 0-5 v Vietnam U20, D 1-1 @ Guam U20.
The market prices SIN at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 17.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
