Where the market is wrong on Santa Fe v Vasco DA Gama
Santa Fe meet Vasco DA Gama in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana quarter-finals.
Santa Fe rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1611 to 1480. Recent form leans Santa Fe, 69% against 47%. Attacking output favors Santa Fe on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.
Santa Fe arrive steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 4 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Junior, D 1-1 @ River Plate, D 0-0 v America de Cali, D 0-0 v River Plate.
Vasco DA Gama are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Cruzeiro, W 1-0 v Vitoria, L 1-4 @ Palmeiras, W 4-1 @ Olimpia.
The market prices SAN at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Santa Fe: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
