Comercial v EC São Bernardo: the model read
Comercial meet EC São Bernardo in the Copa Paulista round of 16 at Estadio Palma Travassos, Ribeirao Preto.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors EC São Bernardo on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.
Comercial arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v EC São Bernardo, L 3-4 @ Noroeste, L 0-1 v XV de Piracicaba, D 1-1 @ União São João.
EC São Bernardo are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Comercial, L 0-1 @ Santo André, L 2-3 v São José EC, W 2-0 v São Caetano.
The market broadly agrees with the model here, 33% implied on COM against our 33%. No meaningful edge. Discipline means passing on priced-in matches.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
