Where the market is wrong on Adelaide Olympic v Modbury Jets
Adelaide Olympic meet Modbury Jets in the South Australia State League 1 semi-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 70%. Attacking output favors Modbury Jets on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Modbury Jets at 56%; double chance reads Adelaide Olympic or draw 61%, Modbury Jets or draw 69%.
Adelaide Olympic arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Modbury Jets, W 3-1 v Adelaide Victory, L 0-1 v Adelaide Raiders, W 2-0 @ Cumberland United.
Modbury Jets are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 16 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Adelaide Olympic, W 1-0 @ Cumberland United, W 4-0 v Adelaide Cobras, W 3-2 @ South Adelaide Panthers.
Modbury Jets hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Adelaide Olympic 0-4 Modbury Jets.
The market prices ADE at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
