Where the market is wrong on Kingborough Lions v Launceston City
Kingborough Lions meet Launceston City in the Tasmania NPL semi-finals at Lightwood Park, undefined.
Kingborough Lions rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1684 to 1558. Recent form leans Kingborough Lions, 73% against 55%. Attacking output favors Kingborough Lions on expected goals, 2.8 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 92%. Draw no bet leans Kingborough Lions at 67%; double chance reads Kingborough Lions or draw 75%, Launceston City or draw 49%.
Kingborough Lions arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Launceston City, L 1-2 @ Devonport City, W 3-1 v Clarence Zebras, W 2-0 v Launceston United.
Launceston City are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ Kingborough Lions, D 1-1 v Clarence Zebras, L 0-6 @ Devonport City, L 1-3 @ South Hobart.
The market prices KIN at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Launceston City: a 5.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output