Where the market is wrong on Staphorst v TEC
Staphorst meet TEC in the Derde Divisie regular season - 8.
TEC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1400. Recent form leans TEC, 68% against 30%. Attacking output favors TEC on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.4 per match.
Staphorst arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v TEC, L 2-3 @ Sparta Nijkerk, L 2-3 v SC Genemuiden, L 2-3 v ACV.
TEC are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 22 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Staphorst, W 7-2 v Eemdijk, D 4-4 @ JOS Watergraafsmeer, W 4-2 @ Hercules.
Staphorst hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Staphorst 0-3 TEC.
The market prices STA at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on TEC: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 76 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
