Where the market is wrong on Al Ittihad v Ceramica Cleopatra
Al Ittihad meet Ceramica Cleopatra in the Premier League regular season - 2 at Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 43%. Attacking output favors Ceramica Cleopatra on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans Al Ittihad at 51%; double chance reads Al Ittihad or draw 68%, Ceramica Cleopatra or draw 66%.
Al Ittihad arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Ceramica Cleopatra, D 0-0 @ Zamalek SC, D 2-2 @ National Bank of Egypt, W 3-0 v Ismaily SC.
Ceramica Cleopatra are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Al Ittihad, L 1-2 v Olympic El Qanah, L 0-1 @ Zamalek SC, D 1-1 v Pyramids FC.
The market prices AL at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Al Ittihad: a 8.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
