Where the market is wrong on ES Tunis v ES Sahel
ES Tunis meet ES Sahel in the Ligue 1 regular season - 1 at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, undefined.
ES Tunis rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1674 to 1489. Recent form leans ES Tunis, 74% against 48%. Attacking output favors ES Tunis on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans ES Tunis at 67%; double chance reads ES Tunis or draw 77%, ES Sahel or draw 54%.
ES Tunis arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v ES Sahel, W 1-0 @ ES Zarzis, W 1-0 @ Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, W 3-0 @ BS Bouhajla.
ES Sahel are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ ES Tunis, L 1-3 @ CS Sfaxien, W 1-0 v CA Bizertin, L 1-3 @ ES Zarzis.
ES Tunis hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: ES Tunis 3-2 ES Sahel.
The market prices ES at 67% implied. Our number sits apart on ES Sahel: a 12.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
