Where the market is wrong on Coal India v Calcutta Police
Coal India meet Calcutta Police in the Calcutta Premier Division regular season. The model makes Coal India the most likely outcome at 59%, with the full read 59% COA, 27% draw, 14% CAL.
Coal India rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1400. Recent form leans Coal India, 80% against 24%. Attacking output favors Coal India on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 17%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Coal India at 80%; double chance reads Coal India or draw 86%, Calcutta Police or draw 41%.
Coal India arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Kalighat Club, D 2-2 v Rainbow, W 1-0 v Aryan, W 3-0 @ Peerless.
Calcutta Police are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 3 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Wari, L 0-2 @ Police, D 0-0 @ NA Suruchi Sangha, D 0-0 v Aryan.
The market prices COA at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Coal India: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output