Where the market is wrong on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Fulham
Al-Ahli Jeddah meet Fulham in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% AL-, 29% draw, 27% FUL.
Al-Ahli Jeddah rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1500. Recent form leans Al-Ahli Jeddah, 69% against 48%. Attacking output favors Al-Ahli Jeddah on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Al-Ahli Jeddah at 61%; double chance reads Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw 73%, Fulham or draw 57%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Guimaraes, D 2-2 @ Rio Ave, L 1-4 @ Holstein Kiel, W 4-1 @ Al Khaleej Saihat.
Fulham are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Newcastle, D 1-1 @ Wolves, L 0-1 v Bournemouth, L 0-3 @ Arsenal.
The market prices AL- at 22% implied. Our number sits apart on Al-Ahli Jeddah: a 21.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
