Where the market is wrong on Zira v Qarabag
Zira meet Qarabag in the Premyer Liqa regular season - 5 at Zira Stadium, Zira.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1624, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 67%. Attacking output favors Qarabag on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Zira arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Qarabag, L 0-5 @ Sabah FA, W 1-0 v Neftchi Baku, W 3-1 v Imisli FK.
Qarabag are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Zira, W 3-2 v Araz, W 1-0 @ Sumqayıt, L 1-4 v Twente.
The market prices ZIR at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Zira: a 7.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output