Where the market is wrong on Gloucester City v Evesham United
Gloucester City meet Evesham United in the Non League Premier - Southern South regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Gloucester City, 55% against 43%. Attacking output favors Gloucester City on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 73%. Draw no bet leans Gloucester City at 64%; double chance reads Gloucester City or draw 74%, Evesham United or draw 54%.
Gloucester City arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ Havant & Wville, W 1-0 v Hanwell Town, D 1-1 @ Wimborne Town, L 2-3 @ Bracknell Town.
Evesham United are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Plymouth Parkway, L 1-4 @ Hanworth Villa, W 3-0 v Chichester City, L 0-4 v Frome Town.
Their last 2 meetings are tight — 2 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Gloucester City 2-2 Evesham United.
The market prices GLO at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Evesham United: a 11.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
