Where the market is wrong on Frome Town v Bath City
Frome Town meet Bath City in the Non League Premier - Southern South regular season - 6.
Frome Town rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1408. Recent form leans Frome Town, 70% against 35%. Attacking output favors Frome Town on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans Frome Town at 76%; double chance reads Frome Town or draw 82%, Bath City or draw 42%.
Frome Town arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Chertsey Town, L 1-2 v Gosport Borough, L 0-1 @ Havant & Wville, W 4-0 @ Evesham United.
Bath City are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Uxbridge, D 1-1 @ Basingstoke Town, W 1-0 v Hanworth Villa, D 1-1 v Plymouth Parkway.
Bath City hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Frome Town 0-5 Bath City.
The market prices FRO at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Frome Town: a 14.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 87 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
