Where the market is wrong on Cleethorpes Town v Alfreton Town
Cleethorpes Town meet Alfreton Town in the Non League Premier - Northern regular season - 4.
Cleethorpes Town rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1420. Recent form leans Cleethorpes Town, 65% against 38%. Attacking output favors Cleethorpes Town on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Cleethorpes Town at 69%; double chance reads Cleethorpes Town or draw 78%, Alfreton Town or draw 51%.
Cleethorpes Town arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Ilkeston Town, W 2-1 v Alfreton Town, D 1-1 @ Warrington Town, W 5-0 @ Quorn.
Alfreton Town are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Stockton Town, L 1-2 @ Cleethorpes Town, W 3-0 v Avro, W 2-1 v Gainsborough Trinity.
Cleethorpes Town hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cleethorpes Town 2-1 Alfreton Town.
The market prices CLE at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Cleethorpes Town: a 6.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
