Where the market is wrong on Lewes v Eastbourne Borough
Lewes meet Eastbourne Borough in the Non League Premier - Isthmian regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1407, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 34%. Attacking output favors Eastbourne Borough on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 70%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans Eastbourne Borough at 50%; double chance reads Lewes or draw 64%, Eastbourne Borough or draw 65%.
Lewes arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Aveley, W 3-1 v Whyteleafe, W 2-0 @ St Albans City, D 0-0 @ Whitehawk.
Eastbourne Borough are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Leatherhead, L 1-2 @ Cray Wanderers, W 3-2 v Brentwood Town, W 3-2 v Three Bridges.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Lewes 1-2 Eastbourne Borough.
The market prices LEW at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Lewes: a 7.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
