Where the market is wrong on Itesalat v Ismaily SC
Itesalat meet Ismaily SC in the Second League regular season - 2 at Telecom Egypt Club Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Itesalat, 45% against 23%. Attacking output favors Itesalat on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 18%, over 2.5 goals around 12%. Draw no bet leans Itesalat at 59%; double chance reads Itesalat or draw 74%, Ismaily SC or draw 63%.
Itesalat arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 2 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Ismaily SC, L 0-2 @ Haras El Hodood, L 0-3 @ Masar, D 0-0 v El Seka El Hadid.
Ismaily SC are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Itesalat, L 1-3 v Masar, L 1-2 v Pharco, L 0-3 @ Al Ittihad.
Itesalat hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Itesalat 2-1 Ismaily SC.
The market prices ITE at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Ismaily SC: a 7.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
