Where the market is wrong on CD Marathon v Real Espana
CD Marathon meet Real Espana in the Liga Nacional apertura - 4 at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 63%. Attacking output favors Real Espana on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 26%. Draw no bet leans Real Espana at 53%; double chance reads CD Marathon or draw 64%, Real Espana or draw 69%.
CD Marathon arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Real Estelí, D 1-1 v Real Espana, L 0-1 v Alianza, W 1-0 @ Atlético Choloma.
Real Espana are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ CD Marathon, D 1-1 v Atletico Independiente, W 2-0 v Génesis, W 3-0 @ Platense FC.
CD Marathon hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: CD Marathon 1-1 Real Espana.
The market prices CD at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Real Espana: a 6.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
