Iguatu and Nacional AM played out a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes and extra time, before the tie was decided in a remarkable penalty shootout that featured 11 successful spot-kicks. The Lemeister model had Iguatu as marginal favourites at 35%, with Nacional AM given a 33% chance of progressing. The data shows a match that was too close to call over the regulation period, but the numbers alone cannot capture the drama of a shootout that saw every penalty scored until the eleventh round, when Nacional AM finally blinked.
The opening goal arrived just before half-time. Wendel scored for Nacional AM in the 44th minute from open play, giving the visitors a lead they would hold into the interval. Iguatu responded after the restart, with Otacilio Marcos levelling the score in the 53rd minute. Neither side could find a winner in the remaining regulation time or the additional 30 minutes, forcing the tie to penalties.
The shootout was extraordinary in its completeness. Every single penalty was converted through the first 10 rounds. Otacilio Marcos scored for Iguatu in the 121st minute, only for Renanzinho to reply immediately for Nacional AM. M. Fernandes then scored for Iguatu, followed by Caio Mancha for the visitors. Icaro Alves, Marquinhos, Ryan Luka and Pedrinho all converted their attempts in the 123rd and 124th minutes, keeping the shootout alive. Mateus Muller scored for Nacional AM in the 125th minute, but it was not enough to prevent the tie moving into sudden death. The decisive miss, though not detailed in the available data, ultimately sent Iguatu through.
In open play, the match was defined by its lack of statistical distinction. No traditional data such as possession, shots or passing accuracy was recorded in the match facts, making it impossible to assess any strategic control or territorial advantage. The only shots that matter are the two goals scored inside 90 minutes, both from open play with no assists registered. The absence of any cards suggests a disciplined contest, but without further metrics, the narrative must rest on the goals and the shootout alone.
The standout performers, by dint of their involvement in the scoring, were Otacilio Marcos for Iguatu and Wendel for Nacional AM. Otacilio Marcos provided the equaliser in the 53rd minute and then held his nerve from the penalty spot in the shootout. Wendel's first-half strike gave his side the lead at a crucial moment. Their contributions, however, were matched by every other taker in the shootout, none of whom missed during regulation penalties.
The result sees Iguatu advance to the quarter-finals of Serie D. The Lemeister model gave them a 35% chance of progressing before the match, and they have justified that slight favouritism by surviving a shootout that featured 11 successful penalties. Nacional AM will rue their failure to convert their final spot-kick after holding Iguatu to a draw over 120 minutes. For Iguatu, the path to promotion remains open, but the data suggests they will need to find more attacking edge if they are to go further.
